AGP Executive Report

Diplomacy: Ethiopia and Sudan have closed consulates and expelled each other’s diplomats amid accusations of backing armed groups. Sudan says RSF drones used Ethiopian territory to attack civilian infrastructure; Ethiopia accuses Sudan of supporting Tigrayan rebels. Both deny the claims. Military Front: Sudan’s army says it has retaken several areas in Kordofan after heavy fighting with the RSF. In Damazin, monitors report RSF drone strikes cut power and water and killed a civilian. Foreign Ties: During a visit to Pakistan, Sudan’s interior minister met Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and army chief Asim Munir to discuss trade, security and institutional cooperation. UN Leadership Race: Scrutiny of UAE candidate Lana Nusseibeh has intensified after a report said UN investigators linked an Emirati company to Colombian mercenaries fighting alongside the RSF. Humanitarian Crisis: UN aid teams say 15.4 million people urgently need shelter as fighting and displacement continue.

Diplomatic Tensions: Ethiopia expelled six Sudanese consular staff and closed Sudan’s Assosa consulate; Sudan retaliated by shutting Ethiopia’s consulate in Gedaref. Khartoum has accused Ethiopia of allowing RSF drone attacks from its territory, while Addis Ababa alleges Sudan backs Tigrayan rebels. Both deny supporting the other’s enemies. Battlefield: Sudan’s army says it recaptured Kazgeil and Abu Qaoud in North Kordofan after clashes with the RSF, advancing along a key supply route. Regional Ties: During a visit to Islamabad, Sudan’s interior minister met Pakistan’s prime minister, who pledged to expand trade and investment and cited opportunities in agriculture, defence and education. Critical Infrastructure: Repeated drone strikes on Sudan’s power network have damaged substations and generating facilities, leaving communities without electricity and threatening essential services. Economic Strain: Bread shortages and soaring prices are worsening hardship for millions as the war disrupts supplies and livelihoods.

Ethiopia-Sudan Tensions: The two countries have closed consulates near their border and ordered each other’s diplomats to leave, escalating a dispute over alleged support for armed groups. Sudan accuses Ethiopia of allowing RSF drone attacks from its territory and has complained to the UN and African Union; Ethiopia denies backing the RSF and accuses Sudan of supporting Tigrayan rebels. Food Crisis: Bread prices in Khartoum have doubled in a week as currency losses and fuel shortages force bakeries to close. Around 20 million people face severe food insecurity. Pakistan Visit: Sudanese Interior Minister Babiker Samra Mustafa Ali met Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Islamabad to discuss trade, investment and cooperation in agriculture, defence and education.

Ethiopia Tensions: Sudan and Ethiopia expelled each other’s diplomats and ordered consulates closed, deepening a dispute over Sudan’s allegations that RSF drone attacks were launched from Ethiopian territory. Khartoum has taken its claims to the UN and African Union; Addis Ababa has denied backing the RSF. Civilian Toll: Drone strikes have killed civilians and damaged power infrastructure, causing blackouts and disrupting water supplies. More than 1,100 people have fled villages in North Darfur amid worsening insecurity. Food and Recovery: Bread prices in Khartoum doubled in a week as bakeries shut amid wheat and fuel shortages, while war damage continues to hamper factories and economic recovery.

Sudan–Ethiopia Tensions: Ethiopia ordered six Sudanese consular staff to leave within 48 hours and closed its Assosa consulate, escalating a diplomatic dispute after Khartoum accused Addis Ababa of allowing RSF drone attacks from its territory. Ethiopia denies backing the RSF and accuses Sudan of supporting Tigray rebels. Sudan has raised its allegations with the UN Security Council and African Union. Civilian Infrastructure Under Fire: Drone strikes have hit power facilities and caused widespread outages, while UN officials warn attacks are disrupting essential services. Sudan’s army says it downed a Chinese-made drone in West Kordofan. Political and Peace Efforts: A UN envoy says talks with the RSF on a transition to civilian rule are expected. In South Kordofan, a Nuba Mountains council backed an initiative to resolve the Heiban conflict.

Diplomatic Tensions: Sudan has complained to the UN Security Council and African Union, accusing Ethiopia of allowing RSF drone attacks to be launched from its territory. Khartoum says 70 attacks involving 187 drones this year have killed or wounded nearly 500 people; Ethiopia denies the allegations. Drone strikes have also hit power stations, causing outages across eastern Sudan. Front Lines: RSF and allied SPLM-N forces say they captured the Sali military base in Blue Nile, while the army-aligned Joint Force reported the death of an operations commander in North Kordofan. Political Stakes: A UN envoy says talks with the RSF on a civilian transition are expected. Separately, reports that Burhan agreed to send Sudanese fighters to Saudi Arabia in exchange for fuel have stirred opposition among Islamists; neither government has confirmed the deal.

Ethiopia Dispute: Sudan has filed complaints with the UN Security Council and African Union, accusing Ethiopia of allowing RSF drone attacks from its territory. Khartoum says 70 assaults involved 187 drones between February and October; Ethiopia has also accused Sudan of backing Tigrayan rebels. Power Under Attack: New drone strikes hit substations in Kassala and other states, causing widespread outages. Sudan’s army says it shot down an FH-95 drone in West Kordofan, without identifying its operator. Kordofan Fighting: The Joint Force says one of its operations commanders, Brig. Gen. Haroun Mursal Abu Tikka, was killed in North Kordofan as clashes continue across the region. Army Defection: The army says RSF personnel surrendered in Blue Nile State, with their commander sharing information about operations and alleged foreign support. Nile Dispute: Egypt and Sudan have rejected unilateral management of Ethiopia’s dam and reaffirmed their shared water-security position and the 1959 Nile agreement.

Cross-Border Tensions: Sudan has complained to the UN Security Council and African Union, accusing Ethiopia of allowing the Rapid Support Forces to launch drone attacks on civilian sites and power stations. Khartoum’s army-led council says it recorded 70 assaults involving 187 drones from February to October; Ethiopia denies supporting the RSF. A reported order to close Sudan’s consulate in Assosa adds to the diplomatic strain. Fighting on Multiple Fronts: The army says it shot down a drone in West Kordofan and repelled RSF and allied attacks in Blue Nile, as clashes continue across the country. Recent strikes on electricity facilities have caused widespread outages. Nile Dispute: Egypt and Sudan reaffirmed their rejection of unilateral Ethiopian dam management and called for a binding agreement, while Cairo reiterated support for Sudan’s sovereignty and reconstruction. Officials also discussed assessing losses they attribute to the dam’s operation and possible compensation.

Power Grid Under Fire: Drone strikes hit substations in Kassala and Northern State on Monday, causing widespread outages and extending a weeklong campaign against Sudan’s electricity network. Sudan says 18 attacks have targeted the grid; the strikes threaten essential services, including hospitals and water supplies. Sudan-Ethiopia Tensions: Khartoum has filed complaints with the UN Security Council and African Union, alleging the RSF launched drone attacks from Ethiopian territory. Ethiopia denies supporting the RSF and has accused Sudan’s army of backing Tigrayan rebels. Civilian Transition: UN envoy Pekka Haavisto says talks with the RSF on a transition to civilian rule could take place before Christmas, after meetings with army-linked figures and an anti-war coalition. Displacement and Prices: In North Darfur, insecurity forced about 1,150 people from their homes over three days, the IOM says. Meanwhile, a collapsing currency and shrinking production are driving up food and fuel costs across Sudan.

Drone War Escalates: Strikes on power substations in Al-Dabbah and Abu Hamad left towns without electricity, disrupting water and business; a guard was killed in Al-Dabbah. Sudanese authorities and a rights group blamed the RSF. The UN chief has also condemned drone attacks after a strike on a Darfur market killed at least 102 people. Sudan-Ethiopia Tensions: Khartoum accused Ethiopia of allowing drone launches from its territory, citing alleged launch sites and dozens of attacks, and said it plans complaints to the UN and African Union. Ethiopia denies backing the RSF and accuses Sudan of supporting Tigrayan rebels. El Fasher’s Toll: One year after the RSF seized the city following a 500-day siege, accounts detail mass killings, sexual violence and the flight of nearly 100,000 people; the true death toll may far exceed the UN estimate of 6,000. War Economy: Currency collapse and shrinking production have driven prices for many essentials to more than ten times pre-war levels, deepening hardship for displaced families.

Power Grid Under Attack: Drone strikes knocked out substations in Al-Dabbah and Abu Hamad on Sunday, deepening outages across army-held areas. Sudanese authorities and a rights group blame the RSF; the blackouts are disrupting water, businesses and medical services. Cross-Border Tensions: Sudan accused Ethiopia of using the Asosa base to supply the RSF and facilitate drone attacks. Ethiopia has denied backing the paramilitary group or allowing launches from its territory. Civilian Toll: UN chief António Guterres condemned escalating drone attacks after a strike on a market in Nyala killed at least 102 people. He urged both sides to protect civilians and infrastructure and agree to a ceasefire. Arms and Diplomacy: An UAE court sentenced eight people to life in prison in an arms-trafficking case involving supplies to Sudan’s army. Meanwhile, the UAE’s candidate for UN secretary-general placed fourth in a Security Council straw poll amid criticism of Abu Dhabi’s role in the conflict.

Drone War: UN chief Antonio Guterres condemned escalating attacks after an army drone strike on Tanqonj market in RSF-held Nyala killed at least 102 people. He urged both sides to protect civilians and infrastructure and agree to a ceasefire. Ethiopia Tensions: Sudan accused Ethiopia of using its Asosa base to arm the RSF, facilitate foreign fighters and launch drone attacks on Sudanese infrastructure. Ethiopia has denied earlier allegations of support for the RSF. Russia Ties: In Moscow, Vladimir Putin offered help to end the war and gave Burhan a roadmap for cooperation. Burhan proposed a Red Sea free economic zone and said Sudan seeks a Sudanese-led dialogue toward civilian rule and elections. RSF Fractures: Senior commander Siddiq Ander said he had defected, accusing Hemedti’s relatives of controlling the group’s finances, weapons, troop movements and promotions.

Ethiopia Tensions: Sudan accused Ethiopia of using a military base in Asosa to arm the RSF and facilitate fighters’ entry, and alleged Ethiopian territory was being used to launch drone strikes on Sudanese infrastructure. Ethiopia has previously denied supporting the RSF or allowing launches from its soil. RSF Defections: Senior commander Siddiq Ander says he has left the paramilitary force, accusing leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo’s relatives of controlling its money, weapons and promotions. Russia Ties: In Moscow, Vladimir Putin offered help to end the war as Abdel Fattah al-Burhan sought a strategic partnership, including a proposed Red Sea economic zone; the countries are also discussing oil projects. Civilian Toll: A drone strike on a crowded Darfur market reportedly killed more than 100 people, while the UN condemned escalating attacks. The US, UK and other countries warned of worsening famine and urged aid access.

UN Leadership Fight: Sudan is campaigning against UAE diplomat Lana Nusseibeh’s bid for UN secretary-general, citing alleged Emirati involvement in the war—claims Abu Dhabi denies. Nusseibeh received seven “encourage” votes in the latest Security Council poll, behind frontrunner Rebeca Grynspan’s 11. Foreign Policy: In Moscow, Sudanese leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan offered Russia investment in gold, copper and other minerals; the two countries also discussed oil-field and electricity projects. Regional Tensions: Sudan accuses Ethiopia of allowing drones to be launched from its territory, including attacks on power infrastructure, raising fears of a wider confrontation. War and Hunger: A drone strike on a Darfur market killed more than 100 people, according to rights monitors, while UN investigators have reported abuses by both the army and RSF and called for an arms embargo as famine warnings mount.

UN Findings: UN investigators say RSF drone strikes in Al Obeid may amount to war crimes, while Sudanese army security forces have detained and tortured civilians. Regional Tensions: Sudan accuses Ethiopia of allowing drones to launch from its territory, including near Bahir Dar, as attacks hit power stations. Ethiopia’s alleged role remains an accusation. Civilian Toll: A strike on a market in South Darfur killed more than 100 people, according to rights groups; the UN has warned that drone warfare is putting civilians at growing risk. Diplomacy and Accountability: Egypt and US officials discussed the war and peace efforts, while Sudan’s leader attended the Russia-Africa summit. Separately, the UK sanctioned 15 Sudanese commanders over alleged wartime sexual violence, and a UAE court sentenced eight people to life in prison in an arms-trafficking case linked to supplies for Sudan’s army. UN Leadership: Sudanese diaspora groups and rights advocates oppose UAE diplomat Lana Nusseibeh’s bid to lead the UN, citing her government’s alleged support for the RSF.

Al Obeid Under Threat: A UN fact-finding mission says RSF drone strikes and SAF arrests and torture are putting civilians in “constant fear”; it warns the attacks may amount to war crimes. Ethiopia Accusation: Sudan says drones that struck power stations were launched from Ethiopian territory, including near Bahir Dar airport, citing flight data and satellite images that have not been independently verified. UAE Arms Case: An Abu Dhabi court sentenced eight people to life over an illicit arms network supplying Sudan’s army, a case likely to further strain ties between the UAE and Sudan. UN Leadership Race: Sudanese diaspora groups and rights monitors oppose UAE nominee Lana Nusseibeh, citing her denials of alleged Emirati support for the RSF. Peace Efforts: The Arab League called for an end to foreign interference and a broad, Sudanese-led national dialogue after its secretary-general met Sudanese officials and political groups in Khartoum.